Is the Bitcoin futures ETF already priced in? It’s a fair question, considering what happened last month re El Salvador.
Bitcoin (ticker symbol: BTC) is up almost 30% since October 1st. BTC opened the month in the $44k range, before hitting as high as $57k on October 11th. The October high of 57k is BTC’s highest price since May 10th of this year.
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The price spike comes just after a month after another major price drop for the world’s biggest digital asset. Anticipation of El Salvador officially introducing Bitcoin as legal tender to its citizens saw price go up all of August. BTC reached $52k the day before the launch but fell hard on September 7th (a.k.a Bitcoin Day), briefly reaching 42k on some exchanges.
Regardless, the optimism for Bitcoin’s prospects for the rest of the year were mixed after another yet massive drop. Not to mention, the looming spectre of Evergrande wasn’t helping quell fears that what we just saw was a dead cat bounce. But the fear subsided pretty quick thanks to the maybe imminent announcement of a Bitcoin futures ETF.
The consensus is the Bitcoin futures ETF hopium is the reason for this month’s positive price action. But with the El Salvador crash barely a month old, some are wondering if the Bitcoin Futures ETF is Already Priced In.
Unfortunately, it’s not a question we can actually answer. If you have any experience in crypto, you probably know that when a few whales decide they want to smote some mortals all the DYOR you did on that brilliant layer-1 ends up being a time suck. And, even if you opt for cynicism, heuristics like “Buy The Rumour, Sell The News” don’t work every time either. See Bitcoin Day v. Cardano smart contract launch announcement.
Point being: who cares. It’s a fools errand trying to figure out if the ETF is priced in. Can it continue mooning into November? Sure. Could there also be some end of month f***ery because there almost always is? Probably.
Has anyone calculated how much Wall Street (the system) has made off crypto? https://t.co/oMvdfBWMDj
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) October 11, 2021
Either way, just keep hodl’ing your BTC — and that dope layer-1 you keep telling your friends about — and you’ll be fine. Especially since, there’s no guarantee the ETF will even happen in 2022, according to CNBC.
“It’s possible — in fact, we think it’s likely — that we’re going to see a delay of a bitcoin futures ETF until 2022, until the regulatory environment is more clear,” Todd Rosenbluth, senior director at CFRA Research, told CNBC. Of course, that’s just one guy’s opinion.
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If hopium is what you desire, Eric Balchunas of Bloomberg is your guy. Balchunas is very optimistic about it still happening this month, let alone in 2021.
But again, I wouldn’t be worried whether there’s a big dip after the announcement or no announcement at all. If we learned anything from El Salvador, there are plenty of other catalysts in the sea.